CHINA: THE RISE OF A SUPERPOWER.
The global dominance
will shift from West to East.
In this year 2014, China is ranked by the IMF (International
Monetary Fund) the first economic power in the world. The USA was the world
leader in economy for over decades until the recent economic turmoil which
deeply impacted the USA clout over the world. As result it is declining.
According to a CIA report, USA will remain the strongest military force in the
world. Are we on the edge of a new economic order? Will Chinese dominance last
as long as USA? What is the outcome for the world?
Since the era of Mao, China has set the path to its economic
development through its social and economic revolution. The regime has made
choices that paid:
- The extensive use of
the human capital (China has the largest human capital in the world with a
population of over 1 billion people)
- A heavy
industrialization of the economy (China opened its market to foreign
industries)
- The extensive use of
new technologies (Huge investments are made in research and development)
- A huge investment in
modern infrastructures
- A massive export of
manufactured products especially electronics (computers, mobile phones etc…)
Over two decades
Chinese economic growth rate was two figures till the recent economic
downturns. Will Chinese economic performance last?
It is likely that
China will not sustain its dominance as the Americans did for two major
reasons:
-First, the one child
policy is an obstacle to the renewal of the human capital. The ageing of the
population will lead to an exponential decrease of the active population.
- Second, China is a
colossus with feet of clay. The regime which is communist is facing a latent
revolution which seems to be a time bomb and may explode any time.
What is the outcome
for the world?
It is likely that
china’s dominance over the world will lead the path for new superpowers to
rise. Countries like Brazil, India and Russia will become powerful nations. A
new economic order will of course take place. The western countries will lose
their dominance over the world as result of the economic turmoil and political
crises they will encounter.
Over all China will
become a powerful nation, but for just a short period of time. The Americans
will remain the strongest military and will lose their economic leadership, but
is likely to make a comeback for this reason: America is the most creative
nation on earth.
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