Tuesday, December 30, 2014

CHINA: THE RISE OF A SUPERPOWER.

The global dominance will shift from West to East.

In this year 2014, China is ranked by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) the first economic power in the world. The USA was the world leader in economy for over decades until the recent economic turmoil which deeply impacted the USA clout over the world. As result it is declining. According to a CIA report, USA will remain the strongest military force in the world. Are we on the edge of a new economic order? Will Chinese dominance last as long as USA?   What is the outcome for the world?
Since the era of Mao, China has set the path to its economic development through its social and economic revolution. The regime has made choices that paid:
- The extensive use of the human capital (China has the largest human capital in the world with a population of over 1 billion people)
- A heavy industrialization of the economy (China opened its market to foreign industries)
- The extensive use of new technologies (Huge investments are made in research and development)
- A huge investment in modern infrastructures
- A massive export of manufactured products especially electronics (computers, mobile phones etc…)

Over two decades Chinese economic growth rate was two figures till the recent economic downturns. Will Chinese economic performance last?
It is likely that China will not sustain its dominance as the Americans did for two major reasons:
-First, the one child policy is an obstacle to the renewal of the human capital. The ageing of the population will lead to an exponential decrease of the active population.
- Second, China is a colossus with feet of clay. The regime which is communist is facing a latent revolution which seems to be a time bomb and may explode any time.

What is the outcome for the world?
It is likely that china’s dominance over the world will lead the path for new superpowers to rise. Countries like Brazil, India and Russia will become powerful nations. A new economic order will of course take place. The western countries will lose their dominance over the world as result of the economic turmoil and political crises they will encounter.

Over all China will become a powerful nation, but for just a short period of time. The Americans will remain the strongest military and will lose their economic leadership, but is likely to make a comeback for this reason: America is the most creative nation on earth.